There are many visible way in which demographics play themselves out in society, but most stem from the balance of workers vs. non-workers (either the young or the elderly). Generally, a country with more than 30% of its population under the age of 14 and less than 6% over the age of 75 is considered a “young population,” and is a situation most often found in developing agricultural societies without adequate health services (i.e. lower life expectancies). See Pakistan, for example.

The opposite problem is that of an aging population, a phenomenon observed across much of the West but also acutely apparent in Japan. The odd-man-out in terms of typical population shifts (from the youth-heavy pyramid of developing counties to graying tendencies of more developed ones), is China.

A recent Economist article commented:

China is known for its plentiful, pliable workers. But these incidents have cast doubt on that caricature… China’s labour supply is still growing. Its working-age population will increase from almost 977m in 2010 to about 993m in 2015, according to projections issued in December by the US census bureau (see left-hand chart). But the number of youngsters (15-24-year-olds) entering the labour force will fall by almost 30% over the next ten years… The ageing of China’s labour force matters, because older workers are less willing to move to the coastal factories that depend on migrant labour.”

Not that imbalances in China’s demographics are anything new. The coming reversal of the country’s youth-heavy workforce, the coming of age of a male-heavy generation (due to a male-biased culture, the one child policy, and the arrival of ultrasound in the countryside), and other patterns have been well-documented. But the effects of these are somewhat more opaque than that of a shrinking labor-force.

Will a decline in available labor enable Chinese workers to demand higher pay, better working conditions, or more benefits? Will it force Chinese companies to raise the prices of their finished goods, and will the brands selling these products then pass the cost onto consumers? Could labor strikes such as the recent one at a Chinese parts supplier give rise to a broader workers’ movement? Who knows for sure… As much as behavioral economists would like to be able to predict how people will respond to certain economic conditions, history has shown that the reactions of Chinese populations is particularly hard to predict…

There are a couple of cultural details you have to be familiar with in order for this story to make any sense — (1) Japan is a very safe country, but people tend to be paranoid. (2) Even deep in the Japanese countryside there are vending machines everywhere in Japan. You’ll see rows of them lined up on the street, near train station, or even apparently in the middle of nowhere. (3) Especially in certain areas of Tokyo, you can see people wearing some of the craziest things… and somehow it’ll see perfectly normal.

Essentially, the vending machine costume is designed to be something a woman could carry in her purse and hide in if she felt threatened (most likely in an urban environment). It is supposed to be realistic enough to fool an attacker and easy enough to unfold that a woman could do so in seconds.

This video shows what appears to be an earlier prototype of the vending machine costume — it’s just two-dimensional but has a pattern similar to that on the three-dimensional costume. It also shows the manhole cover purse (I think the best part is when the man actually trips over the edge of the purse):

Apparently the rationale behind the costume is that people in countries such as the US might fight back against an attacker, but women in Japan are more timid and don’t want to make a scene, so it’s “easier for them to hide.”

Here’s a longer story about the vending machine disguise (via Reuters). You can see a glimpse of the 3D costume at the end. It seems to be for two people. The clip plays after the commercial.

After the Clinton years when people such as Richard Armitage (US Deputy Secretary of State from 2001-05) and Michael Green (Senior Director for Asian affairs at the NSC from 2004-05) came to power in Washington the concern of “Japan passing” receded from the minds of many Japanese politicians. The nomination of Obama and the return of the Democrats to power has rekindled the idea that America may again tilt more toward China. (Random Obama fact: He likes bulgogi and kimchi).

Interestingly, the fear in Japan of being passed (or ignored) doesn’t only apply to relations with the United States. In addition to the ongoing Australia-Japan disputes over whaling, current prime minister of Australia Kevin Rudd’s “widely celebrated Sinophile credentials” have also contributed to concerns that Australia will lean more toward China at the expense of relations with Japan.

So are Japan’s concerns about being “passed” (by the United States, Australia, or other bodies such as the UNSC) unfounded or warranted? Even if many of Obama’s advisers indeed turn out to be from the Clinton era, I think it’s unrealistic that Japan will cease to be an important US ally in Asia.

Some press say the move is an attempt by the outgoing Bush administration to bolster its foreign policy image before it leaves office in January. For example, the LA Times wrote:

The administration’s position marks a 180-degree turn for a team that came to office in 2001 contending that the Clinton administration had been too lenient in its six-year effort to trade North Korea’s nuclear ambitions for economic and political benefits. Now, the Bush administration counts its denuclearization program as one of its most important achievements.

Will the delisting be good or bad for the denuclearization progress in the long run? I suppose only time will tell, but I certainly hope that there was more reason behind the timing of the decision than simply an outgoing administration trying to tie up loose ends.

Of course, it’s probably only a calculated gesture to win goodwill before his visit to the ROK and Thailand ahead of the Olympics opening ceremonies in Beijing. This visit to the ROK, originally scheduled to take place after the G8 in July, was postponed in part to the beef riots that filled the streets of Seoul this summer.

On another Japan-related note, rumors abound that prime minister Yasuo Fukuda will finally reshuffle his cabinet on Monday after two ministers return to Japan from the WTO talks in Geneva. There are other rumors that the announcement may come as late as August 18th.

And finally, I’ve rediscovered the wonderful music of Joe Hisaishi (久石 譲) who composed the scores to some of my favorite Miyazai films. He really is amazing.

“Summer” from Kikujiru (菊次郎の夏)

My Neighbor Tottoro (隣のトットロ)

Known as Takeshima in Japan, Dokdo/Tokdo in South Korea, and the Liancourt Rocks in the US, the disputed territory consists of two “islets” and a scattering of “rocky outcrops” in the Sea of Japan. While the islands themselves are nothing to write home about, the surrounding sea is rich in fishing and possibly natural gas.

South Korea has physically controlled the territory since July 1954, and there are two permanent Korean citizens, Kim Seong-do and Kim Shin-yeol. The islets are 217 km (135 mi) from mainland Korea and 250 km (150 mi) from mainland Japan.

Of course, the ownership of these rocks has been a persistent irritant in Japan-ROK relations since the end of Japanese colonial rule, but the recent flare-up was sparked by new Japanese middle school curriculum guidelines that say teachers should treat “the northern territories as part of [Japan's] territory,” while also instructing educators “to provide a deeper understanding of [Japan's] territory” by treating the Takeshima islets “in a manner comparable to that used in dealing with the northern territories.” According to Japanese media, the ministry of education initially considered having the manual incorporate the phrase “Takeshima is an integral part of our country” but softened its wording our of “diplomatic consideration for South Korea.” Although the guidelines are not legally binding, they serve as a guideline for the editing of school textbooks by publishers and for classroom teaching.

So I suppose you could say that Tokyo was asking for trouble by publishing the new guidelines — but it’s also true that South Korea has taken the insult and run with it. In addition to recalling its ambassador, the ROK >a href=”http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP142224″ target=_new>also dispatched its prime minister on a brief tour of the islands, and the South Korean Navy said it would conduct a joint drill with the Air Force in defense of the islands tomorrow. Japan, in response, has urged the ROK “handle the issue cool-headedly” — a little too late for that, I’ll say.

So the question now is whether this will be simply a flash-in-the-pan that fans dislike on both sides but disappears before too much diplomatic damage occurs or whether it will have lasting negative effects on regional issues, such as the six-party talks and the Japan-ROK-China trilateral meeting scheduled for September. We shall definitely see….

The 2008 Toyako G8 Summit (hosted by Japan in Hokkaido) came and went without incident, but what else is to be expected of an archaic Cold War institution whose members reflect a late 20th century balance of power and whose non-binding statements don’t even hold the signatories accountable for the agreements reached? The Economist, in its usual glib style summed it up in the words: “A mountain-top gabfest provided a spectacular show and a long guest list but few answers to the woes of the world” (July 10).

At any rate, as the event’s host, the biggest task for Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda’s was to not screw things up, and if the avoidance of failure is held as the bar for success, it does appear as though he made the mark — whatever that means for Japanese politics. Predictions that Fukuda may reshuffle his cabinet after the summit have flown back and forth around Japanese media for months, but cabinet reshuffles in Japan are generally calculated PR moves, and who knows when the Kantei will decide that the time is right to get the most out of the announcement?

As far as Japanese PR in general goes, the next G8 summit in Japan won’t occur until 2016, so the country has more than enough time to ponder their next theme…. How about asking world leaders to do a little Yatta?

Or if they find that too difficult, maybe the MDSF could help them out…

Jerome Charles White Jr. (aka “ジェロ“) was more or less an average mixed-race kid who was born in 1981 and grew up in Pittsburgh, PA. He majored in information science at University of Pittsburgh, moved to Japan after graduation, and is essentially the first renowned black enka singer in Japan. His first single, 海雪 (umiyuki), has remained on the Oricon charts since its release on February 20, 2008.

Interesting, Jero has attempted to blend black American hip-hop culture (which is surprisingly popular in urban Japan) with the stereotypically dated genre of enka… to create something rather unique. You can see it here on YouTube or see a Reuters video report here. There’s just something strange about watching him stand on-stage and sound so Japanese while dressed in his baggy pants and baseball cap (here’s a good reference if you’d like to see what normally passes for enka attire).

However, the difficulties of arranging the relays and the costs associated with these preparations have caused commentators to speculate that this may be the last Olympic torch relay to traverse the globe. I don’t suppose this is a legacy that Beijing would want to leave behind. As perhaps a visual representation of Chinese politics, this year’s torch has been accompanied with a large cadre of Chinese security forces, called “elite troops” by one Australian news site and “Olympic thugs” others including UK’s Sky News.

Recently, some cities along the torch route have decided to reject these Chinese guards. Australian Prime Minister Rudd said this week that China’s “tracksuited paramilitaries” would be confined to a bus, which they could leave only if the flame was extinguished and needed relighting. Mr Rudd explained the decision to the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, during their meeting in Beijing. Likewise, Japan’s National police chief Shinya Izumi has said that security in Nagano would be “firmly maintained” by Japanese police, adding: “We do not know what position the people who escorted the relay are in… If they are for the consideration of security, it is our role.”

The Olympic torch will be carried through the Australian capital of Canberra on April 24, followed by the Japanese city of Nagano on April 26. India is also considering whether or not to allow Chinese security forces to run alongside the torch when it arrives in New Delhi (image source: thisislondon.co.uk)