There are many visible way in which demographics play themselves out in society, but most stem from the balance of workers vs. non-workers (either the young or the elderly). Generally, a country with more than 30% of its population under the age of 14 and less than 6% over the age of 75 is considered a “young population,” and is a situation most often found in developing agricultural societies without adequate health services (i.e. lower life expectancies). See Pakistan, for example.

The opposite problem is that of an aging population, a phenomenon observed across much of the West but also acutely apparent in Japan. The odd-man-out in terms of typical population shifts (from the youth-heavy pyramid of developing counties to graying tendencies of more developed ones), is China.

A recent Economist article commented:

China is known for its plentiful, pliable workers. But these incidents have cast doubt on that caricature… China’s labour supply is still growing. Its working-age population will increase from almost 977m in 2010 to about 993m in 2015, according to projections issued in December by the US census bureau (see left-hand chart). But the number of youngsters (15-24-year-olds) entering the labour force will fall by almost 30% over the next ten years… The ageing of China’s labour force matters, because older workers are less willing to move to the coastal factories that depend on migrant labour.”

Not that imbalances in China’s demographics are anything new. The coming reversal of the country’s youth-heavy workforce, the coming of age of a male-heavy generation (due to a male-biased culture, the one child policy, and the arrival of ultrasound in the countryside), and other patterns have been well-documented. But the effects of these are somewhat more opaque than that of a shrinking labor-force.

Will a decline in available labor enable Chinese workers to demand higher pay, better working conditions, or more benefits? Will it force Chinese companies to raise the prices of their finished goods, and will the brands selling these products then pass the cost onto consumers? Could labor strikes such as the recent one at a Chinese parts supplier give rise to a broader workers’ movement? Who knows for sure… As much as behavioral economists would like to be able to predict how people will respond to certain economic conditions, history has shown that the reactions of Chinese populations is particularly hard to predict…

There are a couple of cultural details you have to be familiar with in order for this story to make any sense — (1) Japan is a very safe country, but people tend to be paranoid. (2) Even deep in the Japanese countryside there are vending machines everywhere in Japan. You’ll see rows of them lined up on the street, near train station, or even apparently in the middle of nowhere. (3) Especially in certain areas of Tokyo, you can see people wearing some of the craziest things… and somehow it’ll see perfectly normal.

Essentially, the vending machine costume is designed to be something a woman could carry in her purse and hide in if she felt threatened (most likely in an urban environment). It is supposed to be realistic enough to fool an attacker and easy enough to unfold that a woman could do so in seconds.

This video shows what appears to be an earlier prototype of the vending machine costume — it’s just two-dimensional but has a pattern similar to that on the three-dimensional costume. It also shows the manhole cover purse (I think the best part is when the man actually trips over the edge of the purse):

Apparently the rationale behind the costume is that people in countries such as the US might fight back against an attacker, but women in Japan are more timid and don’t want to make a scene, so it’s “easier for them to hide.”

Here’s a longer story about the vending machine disguise (via Reuters). You can see a glimpse of the 3D costume at the end. It seems to be for two people. The clip plays after the commercial.

After the Clinton years when people such as Richard Armitage (US Deputy Secretary of State from 2001-05) and Michael Green (Senior Director for Asian affairs at the NSC from 2004-05) came to power in Washington the concern of “Japan passing” receded from the minds of many Japanese politicians. The nomination of Obama and the return of the Democrats to power has rekindled the idea that America may again tilt more toward China. (Random Obama fact: He likes bulgogi and kimchi).

Interestingly, the fear in Japan of being passed (or ignored) doesn’t only apply to relations with the United States. In addition to the ongoing Australia-Japan disputes over whaling, current prime minister of Australia Kevin Rudd’s “widely celebrated Sinophile credentials” have also contributed to concerns that Australia will lean more toward China at the expense of relations with Japan.

So are Japan’s concerns about being “passed” (by the United States, Australia, or other bodies such as the UNSC) unfounded or warranted? Even if many of Obama’s advisers indeed turn out to be from the Clinton era, I think it’s unrealistic that Japan will cease to be an important US ally in Asia.

Right Place
By Kosai Sekine

Really now. When was the last time you heard a market rally over currency devaluation? Unfortunately for the yen, it was the victim of a financial practice known as the carry trade. In (relatively) plain English this means borrowing in a currency offering low interest and investing in high-interest currencies — or, in other words, taking advantage of different interest rates in different markets to make money.

Because the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept Japanese interest rates so low, the yen has been on the borrowing end of the carry trade, and traders have used this yen to invest in developing markets around the world. Unfortunately for Japan, with the global financial system in turmoil and developing markets looking increasingly risky, investors are pulling out of these investments and are converting assets in other currencies back into yen. Demand for yen goes up, and the value of the yen rises against everything, even the dollar (one of the other currencies currently on the rise).

Or something like that. The end result of the whole mess is that Japanese exports are more expensive on foreign markets (due to the strong yen), and Japanese manufacturers are freaking out.

Did you get that? What a downhill beginning for the new Aso cabinet — just one week into its tenure and already one minister stepping down. Of course, Aso himself has been know for making gaffes:

• In 2007 people took offense when he said, “Regular-quality [Japanese] rice is sold at about 16,000 yen per [60-kg] bag here. But it can sell for 78,000 yen in China. Which, 16,000 yen or 78,000 yen, is more expensive? Even people with Alzheimer’s disease could understand.”
• Likewise, some international press was also taken aback when he said US diplomats in the Middle East would never solve the region’s problems because they have “blue eyes and blond hair.” The exact quote is something like: “Japan is doing what Americans can’t do [re: Japan-sponsored investment in the Middle East]. Japanese are trusted. It would probably be no good to have blue eyes and blond hair. Luckily, we Japanese have yellow faces.” Somehow, I think Japanese people more reason to be insulted by this than Americans.

Why does Aso put his foot in his mouth more often then Joe Biden? Political commentator Takao Toshikawa told the Japan Times that “Aso often uses blunt language to pass himself off as a common man, not gentry,” but Japan’s new prime minister is anything but a common man. His grandfather, Yoshida, led Japan’s postwar reconstruction; his sister, Nobuko, is married to Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, a cousin of Emperor Akihito. And his own wife, Chikako, is the daughter of the late conservative Prime Minister Zenko Suzuki.

High-class politicians pretending to be “normal” citizens is certainly nothing new in either Japanese or US politics, but as much as any candidate attempts to empathize with the average worker, I doubt that many voters are fooled by the show.

I saw this word online and thought, huh that’s a new one. Actually (if you hadn’t already noticed), I’m kind of a geek, and I love encountering new words. Japan’s version of this concept is encapsulated in their 3R initiative, but somehow (at face value) the “reuse” part of the 3R’s just doesn’t convey the same meaning as “repurpose” — because use can reuse something in the same capacity (for example, reusing plastic utensils), but to repurpose an object is to use it in a different capacity.

At the beginning of the new year it’s impossible to avoid the endless parade of lists — the best x of the past year, the worst x of the year, what’s in, what’s out, etc. etc. But although all this listing usually makes me want to tune out of mass media for the first half of January, I do really like taking a glance at the various words of the year.

I have to admit, the American Dialect Society put forth some pretty odd nominations for 2007. I mean, really. Who in their right mind would ever use the phrase “connectile dysfunction” (inability to gain or maintain an [internet] connection)? Or how about “earmarxist” (a congressman or senator who adds earmarks)? It’s as though they combed the year’s magazines and blogs and plucked out some of the most outlandish terms that people coined to be linguistically “cute.” But sometimes they’re not as bad. “Lifehack,” “sudoku,” and “podcast” all made it into the 2005 nomination list.

At then end of the day, records of words of the year give insight into the development of technology, popular political jargon, and current slang. Another one that’s more useful than anything the American Dialect Society’s come up with: Crapware (that’s of course the crap software that infects and slows down your PC).

Although Fukuda served four years as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官) under former prime minister Junichro Koizumi (2000-04), his political style is quite different from Koizumi — considered a maverick even within his own party, Koizumi relied more on public support than intra-party backing to hold onto power during his tenure. With the nickname “lionheart,” coined out of his “unusual” hairstyle, Koizumi enjoyed public approval ratings of over 80 percent at the hight of his popularity.

So who exactly are the heavyweights who occupy the reshuffled Fukuda cabinet (or as he calls it, the “cabinet for realizing peace of mind”)? Here’s a run-down on some of the new cabinet members:

• Former LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Sadakazu Tanigaki (谷垣禎一): Finance minister in the third realigned Koizumi Cabinet, Tanigaki ran against Fukuda and Aso in 2006 for the post of LDP president (i.e. prime minister).
• Former LDP General Council Chairman Toshihiro Nikai (二階俊博): METI minister in the third realigned Koizumi Cabinet, in 2005 Nikai head of the Diet committee in charge of the privatization of Japan Post. He also served as Minister of Transportation under prime ministers Keizo Obuchi and Yoshiro Mori.
• Former Justice Minister Okiharu Yasuoka (保岡 興治): Although he was first elected to the Diet as an independent, Yasuoka later joined the LDP

Of course, it’s probably only a calculated gesture to win goodwill before his visit to the ROK and Thailand ahead of the Olympics opening ceremonies in Beijing. This visit to the ROK, originally scheduled to take place after the G8 in July, was postponed in part to the beef riots that filled the streets of Seoul this summer.

On another Japan-related note, rumors abound that prime minister Yasuo Fukuda will finally reshuffle his cabinet on Monday after two ministers return to Japan from the WTO talks in Geneva. There are other rumors that the announcement may come as late as August 18th.

And finally, I’ve rediscovered the wonderful music of Joe Hisaishi (久石 譲) who composed the scores to some of my favorite Miyazai films. He really is amazing.

“Summer” from Kikujiru (菊次郎の夏)

My Neighbor Tottoro (隣のトットロ)

Known as Takeshima in Japan, Dokdo/Tokdo in South Korea, and the Liancourt Rocks in the US, the disputed territory consists of two “islets” and a scattering of “rocky outcrops” in the Sea of Japan. While the islands themselves are nothing to write home about, the surrounding sea is rich in fishing and possibly natural gas.

South Korea has physically controlled the territory since July 1954, and there are two permanent Korean citizens, Kim Seong-do and Kim Shin-yeol. The islets are 217 km (135 mi) from mainland Korea and 250 km (150 mi) from mainland Japan.

Of course, the ownership of these rocks has been a persistent irritant in Japan-ROK relations since the end of Japanese colonial rule, but the recent flare-up was sparked by new Japanese middle school curriculum guidelines that say teachers should treat “the northern territories as part of [Japan's] territory,” while also instructing educators “to provide a deeper understanding of [Japan's] territory” by treating the Takeshima islets “in a manner comparable to that used in dealing with the northern territories.” According to Japanese media, the ministry of education initially considered having the manual incorporate the phrase “Takeshima is an integral part of our country” but softened its wording our of “diplomatic consideration for South Korea.” Although the guidelines are not legally binding, they serve as a guideline for the editing of school textbooks by publishers and for classroom teaching.

So I suppose you could say that Tokyo was asking for trouble by publishing the new guidelines — but it’s also true that South Korea has taken the insult and run with it. In addition to recalling its ambassador, the ROK >a href=”http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSSP142224″ target=_new>also dispatched its prime minister on a brief tour of the islands, and the South Korean Navy said it would conduct a joint drill with the Air Force in defense of the islands tomorrow. Japan, in response, has urged the ROK “handle the issue cool-headedly” — a little too late for that, I’ll say.

So the question now is whether this will be simply a flash-in-the-pan that fans dislike on both sides but disappears before too much diplomatic damage occurs or whether it will have lasting negative effects on regional issues, such as the six-party talks and the Japan-ROK-China trilateral meeting scheduled for September. We shall definitely see….